Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computers and the New Resource-Estimate Crisis
Why the post-quantum migration clock may be moving faster than institutions expected
The 2026 resource-estimate debate has changed the way the quantum threat to cryptography should be understood. The issue is not whether a cryptographically relevant quantum computer already exists, nor whether today’s public-key cryptography has suddenly collapsed. The real problem is more structural: if the resources required to attack elliptic-curve and other public-key systems are lower than previously assumed, then governments, financial institutions, critical infrastructure operators and cryptocurrency ecosystems may have less time to complete post-quantum migration than their current planning models imply. This matters most for data that must remain confidential for years or decades. In that context, “harvest now, decrypt later” is not a theoretical scenario but a present risk-management problem, because encrypted data collected today may become readable once quantum capability matures.